Plural Vote - 2020 Presidential Forecast
Stay up-to-date with the state of the race via polls & data
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Plural Vote - 2020 Senate forecast - Be up-to-date with a model based on polls and search trends

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Plural Vote is an independent, non-partisan, data-driven news site. We statistically analyze elections, current events, policy decisions, and legislation in order to get to the bottom of important issues. One of our models is for the 2020 Senate race.

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Hey Product Hunt! Our model depends on polls and search trends to predict vote outcomes. Past polling error informs our modelling of the uncertainty of our predictions. We model the probabilities using the beta, weibull, and logistic distributions. The Senate seat composition and probability is estimated using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Polls prove predictive even early on in the Senate election process. 200 days before election day, Senate polls have a Mean Absolute Error of 3.3 points (Jennings and Wlezien 2016). This means that on average, polls of the Senate race accurately predict the final margin 200 days out within 3.3 points. Feel free to follow us @plural_vote on Twitter for regular statistical election updates.