We price in prepaid credits so the worst case is meant to be boring. You hit zero, generation stops, nobody gets a bill they didn't agree to.
Then we shipped a spend function that was writing bad balance events. The ledger drifted from what people had actually spent, so the ceiling I thought I had wasn't the ceiling. Nothing failed, nothing alerted, and the number in the config was still correct the whole time.
We simulated 318,000 backtest searches in markets where nothing can be predicted, and counted how often each test said "edge". A t-test on the best rule: 10.9% to 78.9% of the time. Bonferroni: 8.0% to 10.3% when the market drifted, and 58.5% to 59.7% when stocks only differed in average return. A placebo test (shuffle the days, the same shuffle for every asset, and rerun the whole pipeline on 19 copies): 4.6% to 5.5%, against a promised 5%.
The placebo is now a tool in Canli Validation (placebo_test), next to a lookahead check that never sees your code (check_leakage). The study and its pre-registration: https://github.com/arhancanli/ca...
Has anyone here run a placebo on their own strategy or model pipeline? Curious what it found.
A couple of my recent posts led to good conversations. Now I m trying to figure out what gets someone from reading about a product to actually trying it.
For those who ve launched something: where did your first users come from? Were they following what you were building, or did you find them somewhere completely different?
I m getting Inquir Compute ready to launch. It s a platform for running apps, databases and background jobs. I ve been sharing what I m working on here, but I m still figuring out how to reach the people who might use it.
Share your product and one specific thing you did that brought in users.
