I came across Deutsche Bank s latest report on AI, and it sparked an interesting thought experiment: how likely is it that we ll see AGI (AI that thinks and learns like a human) within the next five years?

The report highlights a fascinating divergence: the view from money vs. the view from science.

• Money: the probability inferred from trillions poured into data centers, Nvidia chips, and servers. Investors seem to be betting that AGI is inevitable.

• Science: the probability inferred from research papers and AI development models. Experts are far more cautious, suggesting the realistic probability is only 20%.