A real story about probability, not confidence

I have a friend.

He’s not good-looking, not tall, not rich.

By most conventional standards, he’s not someone you’d expect to date attractive women.

But he does.

And not just one — he’s had many beautiful girlfriends over the years.

This is a true story.

One day, someone asked him how he did it.

It’s an impolite question, but he didn’t mind. His answer was very direct:

“It’s simple — and very hard.”

His method was probability.

He estimated his success rate to be around 1 in 1000.

So every month, he deliberately puts himself in front of around 200 attractive women — mostly through social media.

Then he acts fast and categorizes them:no chance,small chance,good chance

Anyone with no chance is immediately dropped.

The rest stay in the pool.

The key rule:

He always keeps about 200 active interactions going at the same time.

With this system, statistically, one out of every thousand eventually works out.

Someone asked him whether he refined the process over time — becoming more “precise” or “efficient.”

His answer surprised me.

He said at the beginning, when he felt confident and thought he didn’t need to talk to that many people at once, he failed completely.

But the moment he returned to his original rule — the uncomfortable, exhausting one — the results came back.

So what’s the lesson?

For me, it’s this:

Life is mostly probability.

Precision, elegance, and “smart moves” are luxuries for the exceptionally gifted.

For the rest of us, brute-force consistency beats cleverness.

I’m not that smart.

I’m not that handsome.

So I choose probability.