Why asymmetric returns matter and how we think about them

Most people invest expecting symmetry:

“You risk €1, you hope to make €1.50 or €2.”

That’s how public markets work - relatively predictable, relatively linear.

Venture capital isn’t like that. Not even close.

In VC, 80% of your investments might break even or go to zero. But one outlier (the next Revolut, Airbnb, or UiPath) can return your entire portfolio and then some. That’s the power law in action.

This is what makes private markets so different, and why most retail investors approach them with the wrong expectations. They’re looking for “safe bets” - but safety isn’t the game here. The game is asymmetric returns:

You risk €1, knowing there’s a chance you might lose it - but also a chance it turns into €100.

So how do you play that game well?

• You diversify across enough early-stage companies to give yourself exposure to a breakout

• You co-invest with sharp institutional capital who’ve seen the pattern before

• And you stay patient, because asymmetric returns compound over time, not weeks

At Shuttle, we’re building for the investor who understands this math and wants to play that game.

One that isn’t just about avoiding risk.

It’s about recognising when the reward is wildly worth it.