How I Discovered Petrol Price Cycle Lows... This happens to me all the time: I get in my car and my petrol gauge is indicating close to empty. I drive to where I was going and, on the way, I look at petrol prices at service stations. “Do I buy today at $1.14/l or do I wait until tomorrow?” I ask myself. “Will prices jump to $1.32 or will they drop to $1.01?” It’s a risky choice. If you are filling a 20-litre petrol tank each week that's an approximate a $200 ($0.20/litre saving when purchasing at the cycle low *20 litres *52 weeks) saving per year from some quick, yet smart hedging. I’d rather that money in my pocket and not some Saudi Prince! On a good day, that saving can get you a direct flight to Bali and back. But alas, how do YOU know what will happen? Although some mobile apps and websites tell you the real- time price of petrol in major Australian capital cities, who really cares if you know what the days petrol price is, or, find the cheapest daily petrol if it is at the peak of the price cycle? You still paid the more for petrol than you should have. It is kinda being penny wise, yet pound foolish. Knowing when the petrol price is going to be at its low point of the cycle is the pipe-dream! As I am a university lecturer in Innovation, I set about researching petrol prices in Australia. And what I found was, that in Australia, petrol prices run in various cycles. These cycles are aren’t always consistent. Based on that understanding, despite their inconsistency, I decided to create an algorithm that could predict the come lows in the petrol price cycles. As you can imagine, it was a very difficult and complex task. Using the algorithm I created, for the past 5 years I have known when petrol prices are low and have capitalised on those savings at the bowser. It was and still is the first and only algorithm in the world that accurately (within about a day) predicts the lows of the petrol price cycle in major Australian capital cities. How Petrol Pricing Works In Australia... Price, is amount of money asked for by a supplier from a customer, or the amount of money paid by a customer to a supplier for a product or service. Pricing, is the process a supplier uses to set the price of a product or service for sale to a consumer. When a supplier is deciding to set the price of a product or service they consider the “price point” – that is, the possible/hypothetical “points” of price on a graph they could sell a product or service for. Prices could be: • Fixed; or • Changing (Also called Dynamic Price). Those fixed or changing prices could be based on: 1. The raw cost of materials for the supplier; 2. The desired margin or profit for the supplier; 3. The market conditions/demand for the product or service by consumers; or 4. Through many other pricing strategies... Petrol stations in Australia sell petrol on a dynamic pricing basis, and according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission petrol prices are based on “deliberate policies of petrol retailers, and are not directly related to changes in wholesale costs.” I will not speculate as to what those policies of petrol retailers are, but the fact remains, that in Australia petrol prices occur in cycles – that is prices go from a high price point to a low price point and repeat. This is referred to as the “Australian petrol price cycle”. And the price at any given day in Australian petrol price cycle (the peak price to low price) is measured as an average for an entire state/region. There are more than 8,000 petrol stations in Australia. So, for example, in a hypothetical 14-day petrol price cycle in a single state/region the daily average of all those petrol stations could be as follows: • Day 1: $1.47 per litre; • Day 2: $1.45 per litre; • Day 3: $1.44 per litre; • Day 4: $1.41 per litre; • Day 5: $1.39 per litre; • Day 6: $1.38 per litre; • Day 7: $1.35 per litre; • Day 8: $1.29 per litre; • Day 9: $1.23 per litre; • Day 10: $1.21 per litre; • Day 11: $1.22 per litre; • Day 12: $1.25 per litre; • Day 13: $1.45 per litre; and • Day 14: $1.45 per litre. This example is similar to what is reflected in several free “comparison” petrol price apps provided by government and commercial providers such Petrol Spy and so on. This hypothetical 14-day petrol price cycle has a peak average state/region price and low state/region average price. The peak is Day 1 at an average of $1.47 per litre and the low is Day 10 at an average of $1.21 per litre. Although possible, petrol prices in Australia are never 2 days – that is a peak day, followed by a low day, followed by a peak day and so on – petrol prices in Australia incrementally decrease and increase in price over several days. There are 3 ways to save money at the petrol bowser as a consumer: 1. Purchasing the cheapest petrol on any given day; 2. Purchasing the at the low of the petrol price cycle; and 3. A combination of both. How I Turned That Discovery Into The Petrol Price Predictor™... The problem with the first version of the algorithm was it was only a mathematical formula. This meant it was difficult for me to use it quickly. As I know how to code software, I had the idea to integrate the standalone algorithm into software so I could quickly get a prediction of the next price low. I decided the best first step would be a closed private Android app that I could use while I got into my car for the day. So, I built it and started using in. As it was so successful, I told friends and family about it and they started asking me to tell them when the next low in their city would be. Each week I would SMS my family and friends informing them. So that approximate $200/year saving I was making was multiplied to these people. After a few years, messaging them got time consuming and I wondered if there was a better way… There was – just send the APK file of the private Android app to them. That was great for those friends and family who had Android phones, but not for those with other operating systems. As I also had a Google Home voice device in my house, I then had the idea to integrate the algorithm into a Google Assistant voice app. This obviously wasn’t an easy task either. The result of this made the algorithm public and allowed iPhone users to access it via the Google Home phone app on the iPhone platform. Yet, not many used Google Assistant voice apps – I was still ahead of mainstream adoption of this technology. So again, I had the idea to integrate the algorithm into website that could be accessed on any mobile as well. Again back to coding… And the result was this website! Obviously, the journey getting to this point wasn’t short, but you can now access future predicted petrol prices in major Australian cities with ease! How The Petrol Price Predictor™ Works... All you have to do is: 1. Signin to your account (you will automatically be redirected to the predictor); 2. Scroll down the short menu to find your capital city name; and 3. You will get an email alert the morning of the predicted lows or you can download the .ICS file to import to your online calendar. If you chose the second option in step three (3), your online calendar will send you a reminder on the day when the next predicted petrol price lows will be. And it is as simple as that! Really.

Petrol Price Predictor

Predict future retail petrol prices in australia

Predict future retail petrol prices in australia