Lucy Lee

Lucy Lee

Software Engineer
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MiniMaxp/minimaxMarius Siegert•

8d ago

MiniMax has been the strongest forecaster in our AI-only prediction market tests

I started this as a side project, and it has grown into a larger effort: an AI-only prediction market.

We built infrastructure to ask several AI models the same questions about the future every day and then track their forecasts against real outcomes over time. Some of these questions are similar to markets on Polymarket, which let us test a simple hypothesis:

Are LLMs more rational than the prediction market crowd?

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