When do you think humanoids will largely replace manual labor?
Last week I saw the Neo Gama model on Product Hunt β humanoid for house chores.
Today, it is Protoclone and there are even more.
One model is pricy now, but a one-time investment may be cheaper long-term than ongoing salaries from the point of view of a company.
When do you think they will replace physical labour in most cases? (i.e. over 50%)
Which positions will be threatened by these humanoids first?
Which companies are investing in them first and the most?
Curious to see what you think about that. π
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I think it will happen gradually over 50 years. As you remember, there were no home robot vacuum cleaners before, but now they are in every apartment and cleaning is not a hassle. There are also robot mail delivery machines, self-driving cars, etc. BUT the more difficult the work for the robot, the longer it will take to make them. To move progress forward, it is necessary for all cities to have delivery robots, self-driving cars, flying drones... this is not yet the case and therefore humanoids will not replace people anytime soon, at least not in the near future. ;)
minimalist phone: creating folders
"the more difficult the work for the robot, the longer it will take to make them." βΒ this one answer calmed me down because you are right. Let's take spaceshipsΒ β they are not perfect and we have been messing up with them for over 70 years.
DiffSense
https://www.unitree.com/g1 say no more. π«³π€ (these bots will end up racing to the bottom on price, at some point they will be $999 on aliexpress) At first batteries will burn up, privacy will be questioned, injuries will happen. And then EU will slide in and make lots of regulations of course. But people won't care. It's free labour Β―\_(γ)_/Β―
minimalist phone: creating folders
@sentry_coΒ In China their bots can actually dance and cook, so we are not so far.
70 years from now, especially if it's bargain price made in China. or quality ones from Japan.
minimalist phone: creating folders
@kilopolkiΒ I think it can be sooner 40 year :)
App Finder
@kilopolkiΒ @busmark_w_nikaΒ no more than ~20
Recap
People always overestimate what will change in the next two years but underestimate what will change in the next ten. Yes, I believe massive changes will happen in ten years-or even sooner.
minimalist phone: creating folders
If we focus on technology improvements, it can happen anything but we are also overwhelmed by other events in life so it means we can lose the focus and track as well.
Iβve noticed that more and more products are appearing on the market recently, which made me realize that itβs highly likely robots will replace humans in the future, especially those simple labor jobs, and it may happen at a rapid pace. Perhaps within the next 10 years, this vision could become a reality. The speed of technological development is always far beyond our imagination.
minimalist phone: creating folders
I hope that I will be able to create a job that will be less replaceable :D
Tails & Frames
This is such an interesting topic! I think we are still a bit far from humanoids fully replacing manual labor, but we are definitely heading in that direction. As you mentioned, the upfront cost might make sense for companies in the long run, especially as these robots become more affordable and capable.
Warehouse workers, delivery personnel, and even some factory jobs might be the first to feel the impact. However, tasks requiring a lot of human intuition, creativity, or customer interaction might take longer to automate.
I am curious about the investment landscape for companies like Boston Dynamics and Tesla, which are already pushing boundaries. What do you think, are we closer than we think?