How do you think OpenAI will offset its current losses? And will the AI bubble burst?
Yesterday, I came across a post saying that OpenAI projects a $14 billion loss in 2026. They’ve gone through several funding rounds, offer monthly subscriptions, and are now planning to integrate ads into search results (which means another revenue stream).
Realistically, I don’t think this loss will be covered in the short term, and profitability might only come over a longer horizon (if at all).
At the same time, I read this article on how big tech is spending insane amounts of money on AI, and investors are starting to get nervous. (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, etc.).
Do these changes suggest the industry is going through a crisis?
And how do you see OpenAI’s future and its ongoing funding challenges?
Just curious whether OpenAI can lose its position under these circumstances.
Replies
The biggest risk for OpenAI right now isn’t even money, it’s that intelligence is becoming a cheap commodity. The DeepSeek case showed that models can be trained way cheaper. If open-source models catch up to GPT-5 in a year, what’s the point of paying for an OpenAI subscription? They don’t have the same moat as Apple or Google aside from user habits
IXORD
@olenadesign Actually, that's a good argument. When people want to find an AI chat, they will likely prefer the free version of DeepSeek over the paid one :)
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@olenadesign @ixord Don't they have any trust issues? 😅
vibecoder.date
I'm bearish on OpenAI.
They are burning cash faster than anyone ever as far as I know.
The ads, while a rational move if you think in numbers, cause backlash and distrust.
The #keep4o crowd is not doing their image any favors, and more and more there is some anti AI sentiment in the public opinion.
The public at large has yet to see benefits beyond convenience. Think about it. If you don't care about vibecoding an app, what use case is there for AI, life automation? Having it help with taxes? It's valuable sure but it still eels... situational.
People doomscroll, not many doomchat. Some do.
OpenAI is expanding so much and the public is jaded and wary, We have multiple generations who lived through the 08 crash, the dot com bubble, etc. this isn't the same but it feels similar.
In my opinion if they IPO they are royally screwed. they might be screwed anyway.
Even microsoft is divesting and their only contribution to AI is Azure compute.
Copilot sucks but that's a rant for the blog lol
Overall I don't see them winning. Sam Altman has overpromised every time. Other labs like xAI have had recent scandals and people are looking at these titans of industry and instead of leadership they are finding irresponsible men with egos doing the talking.
People mistake my expertise on the tech and the subject with my support for the commercial offerings of it.
I am bullish on open source labs, Z AI is doing great, Deepseek is pushing out research constantly and I am sure they will soon publish another model. Qwen, Mistral, etc.
All the opensource labs are advancing fast.
Google has distribution
Anthropic is going for enterprise
Open AI is looking at an empty sky, pleading to the heavens. And all they'll get is silence
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@build_with_aj it feels like every day that they had better marketing than their overall monetising plan and strategy. And it looked so promising. Maybe karma happened. He indeed fired co-founders...
When Nvidia scales back from $100B investment (which was never guaranteed in first place anyway) to something closer to $20B, that's not an encouraging sign for potential investors. Now, the CFO of the Softbank says that nothing has been decided in terms of future funding rounds. Again, hardly a vote of confidence.
The potential IPO this year may be the OpenAI make or break moment. I personally, doubt they will turn profitable. Some say OpenAI will be the next WeWork :)
So far the datacenter investments have been financed from free cash flow, which hasn't been a problem so far for MSFT, Amazon or Meta. However, there are already signs that in the future it may be funded by debt. It remains to be seen if this will turn out to be a problem.
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@piotr_kreglicki It won't be nice to see them fall, but maybe they just rested on their laurels and bet too much on marketing and brand "firstness". We will see.